Tuesday, January 15, 2008

The next passage of the MJO (Phase 4) can be expected about mid February.
The past 2 MJO’s have hung around in the western Pacific, slowing down markedly after their rapid transit of the Indian Ocean.
This MJO was perhaps a little slower, but seems to have hit the same hurdle in the western Pacific- it is probably the easterlies associated with the La Nina causing this Phase 6/7 sliding halt. In fact the westerly anomalies behind the MJO active convection look to have gone south around the equatorial easterlies this time.

Several tropical cyclones and tropical lows have developed with this passage of the MJO through the tropics north of Australia. There is probably still another 7-10 day window of heightened chances of a tropical Low related to this passage of the MJO. Then convection should be suppressed, however, given the La Nina, an obvious dry spell in the monsoon may not be very evident.

Over summer/ autumn the passage of the MJO will typically be associated with Southern Hemisphere tropical storms, and also cyclones in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean. We usually expect to see a greater impact on our rainfall (northern Australia) during our summer and autumn.

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