The MJO signal has increased in strength during recent days after a very rapid eastward
movement from the western hemisphere to the Maritime continent. Convection has not yet shifted southward into the southern hemisphere.
While MJO signals should generally strengthen during the southern summer, and Australia see a more direct MJO impact, La Nina conditions can be expected dominate any MJO impact.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Sitrep 23 October
The MJO is due north of Australia early November. This could mean the first incursion of the rainy season (but NOT the monsoon) for much of northern Australia.
The monsoon might then be intiated be the next passage of the MJO, early-mid December.
The MJO is currently weak, but in the region of Phase 1. Phase 1 and 2 are associated with drier conditions in northern Australia during summer.
Fewer weak MJO signals occur during Austral (southern) summer. Phases 4-7 are associated with increased chances of rain across the north of Australia.
The monsoon might then be intiated be the next passage of the MJO, early-mid December.
The MJO is currently weak, but in the region of Phase 1. Phase 1 and 2 are associated with drier conditions in northern Australia during summer.
Fewer weak MJO signals occur during Austral (southern) summer. Phases 4-7 are associated with increased chances of rain across the north of Australia.
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
The MJO is in Phase 8.
The next passage of the MJO (to the North of Australia) is expected late October/ early November, and could be reasonably expected to initiate (pre-monsoon) early summer rains in the north.
In Australia, there is less direct impact from MJO passages during our winter/early spring. For example, during Phases 5 and 6 the southern grain belt (south eastern Australia) could expect enhanced chances of rain, and the western grain growing region winter rainfall is enhanced during MJO Phases 7 and 8. More 'weak' MJO Index signals, when Phase cannot be determined, are recorded during Austral winter.
The next passage of the MJO (to the North of Australia) is expected late October/ early November, and could be reasonably expected to initiate (pre-monsoon) early summer rains in the north.
In Australia, there is less direct impact from MJO passages during our winter/early spring. For example, during Phases 5 and 6 the southern grain belt (south eastern Australia) could expect enhanced chances of rain, and the western grain growing region winter rainfall is enhanced during MJO Phases 7 and 8. More 'weak' MJO Index signals, when Phase cannot be determined, are recorded during Austral winter.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
The RMM signal remains weak. This incoherent MJO signal is unlikely to have any effect in northern Australia at this time of year.
The next passage of the MJO is expected late October, and at this time of year could be reasonably expected to initiate (pre-monsoon) early summer rains in the north.
In Australia, there is less direct impact from MJO passages during our winter/early spring. For example, during Phases 5 and 6 the southern grain belt (south eastern Australia) could expect enhanced chances of rain, and the western grain growing region winter rainfall is enhanced during MJO Phases 7 and 8.
More 'weak' MJO Index signals, when Phase cannot be determined, are recorded during Austral winter.
The next passage of the MJO is expected late October, and at this time of year could be reasonably expected to initiate (pre-monsoon) early summer rains in the north.
In Australia, there is less direct impact from MJO passages during our winter/early spring. For example, during Phases 5 and 6 the southern grain belt (south eastern Australia) could expect enhanced chances of rain, and the western grain growing region winter rainfall is enhanced during MJO Phases 7 and 8.
More 'weak' MJO Index signals, when Phase cannot be determined, are recorded during Austral winter.
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