The MJO signal is incoherent with cloud/ convective activity stretching from the mid- Indian Ocean to western Indonesia.

Models suggest that the MJO signal will probably remain incoherent for a few days.

I expect that the MJO will then cycle again, and reach Phase 4-5 (Maritime continent) mid March.

This may induce the last monsoonal burst for the 07-08 season, although there's always the chance a further passage of the MJO in April that could promote a final monsoonal incursion for Australia.

The probability of TC generation is enhanced by the passage of the MJO, so there's now an increased risk in the tropics to the NE of Australia for the next few days.

13th February

The MJO is now in Phase 5.

This passage of the MJO helped to re-invigorate the monsoon.

The MJO/monsoon should promote rainfall in northern Australia for the next week to 10 days, before the inactive phase of the MJO again suppresses convection. As previously noted, during a La Nina summer suppression may not be strongly evident.


The next passage of the MJO can be expected mid-March, probably the last opportunity for monsoon action, and wet season rains for northern Australia.

In addition to the MJO though: according to GCM's the La Nina may take a several months to break down, rather than breaking down over March - May, which may increase the chance of rainfall even through the ENSO autumn predictability barrier.

5th February

The MJO is now located over western Indonesia - Phase 4.

The monsoon should be reactivated in the north in a few days by the passage of the MJO.

The chance of a TC to the N- NW of Australia has increased.