27 November

The MJO is located in the western Pacific region. Easterlies, associated with the La Nina are inhibiting eastward movement. The MJO has demonstrated some eastward movement over the past week. With respect to the (fairly strong) Phase amplitude (Phase 6 amplitude 2.1 on 25th Nov) the westerlies that trail the MJO have moved east over the Indian Ocean and western Maritime Continent, and convection is strong: so, the amplitude is reasonable despite the lack of characteristic eastwrad movement.

I would now expect to see westerlies and suppression to the north of Australia however:
there is a La Nina in place, and that La Nina is still strengthening. The La Nina was late and Sea Surface Temps adjacent to Australia were cooler than would be expected during a La Nina event. These La Nina indicators make it very difficult to forecast the rainfall impacts of the MJO throughout northern Australia. While the MJO may be in an inactive phase and suppressing rainfall, this impact may be pretty much indecipherable due to La Nina driven convection and rainfall in the western Pacific/ northern Australia.

I expect the next passage of the MJO north of Australia (RMM Phase 4) in 18-23 days - mid December. Given the timing of this MJO event, and in conjunction with the La Nina, I would expect the Australian monsoon trough to develop in very short order after the arrival of the MJO.

MJO 21 November

Over the past week convection over the eastern Maritime continent and western Pacific Ocean has increased. This signal is to some extent a response to TC Guba, rather than as an expression of the MJO. However the MJO has demonstrated some eastward progression.

Conditions over Indian Ocean have dried out, and I would expect the drying phase to shift east to the Martime Continent over the next 10-15 days.

The next passage of the MJO north of Australia cna be expected around mid -December.
This timing could coinicde with the start of the monsoon, especially given it's a La Nina year, and the monsoon can reasonably be expected to be earlier than usual.

14th November

After rapid eastward movement, the MJO has settled over the Maritime Continent again (as during Sept - Oct) with little eastward movement evident over the past week or more.

Based on the last few MJO's the next passage would arrive north of Australia mid-December.

La Nina conditions may continue to dominate the MJO. Regardless of that, the next MJO could well intiate the start of the monsoon over northern Australia.

MJO Sitrep Tuesday 6th November

After moving rapidly east the MJO is now located in the Maritime continent region. This relatively stationary pattern is perhaps more La-Nina-ish than MJO-ish

The past few MJO's have displayed the typical 40-50 day timing and if this continues the next MJO is due mid-December, nicely timed to intiate the mosnoon.