MJo January 8th

The MJO is now in Phase 6.

The next passage of the MJO (Phase 4) can now be expected in mid February. The past 2 MJO’s have lingered in the western Pacific, after rapid progression eastward over the Indian Ocean basin. This is most likely due to the La Nina atmospheric signature in the western Pacific. The current MJO (Phase 6) might reasonably be expected to behave in a similar manner, and linger in the western Pacific for the next week to ten days.
At this time of year the MJO is typically associated with the Australian monsoon and increased rainfall over much of Northern Australian and also with features such as tropical cyclones. Several tropical cyclones and tropical lows have/are developing with this passage of the MJO through the tropics north of Australia.
As the summer progresses the passage of the MJO will typically be associated with Southern Hemisphere tropical storms, and also cyclones in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean. We usually expect to see a greater impact on our rainfall (northern Australia) during our summer and autumn.