Over the past week convection over the eastern Maritime continent and western Pacific Ocean has increased. This signal is to some extent a response to TC Guba, rather than as an expression of the MJO. However the MJO has demonstrated some eastward progression.
Conditions over Indian Ocean have dried out, and I would expect the drying phase to shift east to the Martime Continent over the next 10-15 days.
The next passage of the MJO north of Australia cna be expected around mid -December.
This timing could coinicde with the start of the monsoon, especially given it's a La Nina year, and the monsoon can reasonably be expected to be earlier than usual.
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2 comments:
Thank's for keeping us up to date with the current progress, I have previously found your predicitions very helpfull with agricultural planning.
Noticed the MJO and monsoon have a strong relationship with Lanina, and thats something thats been missing for a while now. Guba was a representation of how when combined the 3 can produce a dramatic early even in the Austrialian region.
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