27 November

The MJO is located in the western Pacific region. Easterlies, associated with the La Nina are inhibiting eastward movement. The MJO has demonstrated some eastward movement over the past week. With respect to the (fairly strong) Phase amplitude (Phase 6 amplitude 2.1 on 25th Nov) the westerlies that trail the MJO have moved east over the Indian Ocean and western Maritime Continent, and convection is strong: so, the amplitude is reasonable despite the lack of characteristic eastwrad movement.

I would now expect to see westerlies and suppression to the north of Australia however:
there is a La Nina in place, and that La Nina is still strengthening. The La Nina was late and Sea Surface Temps adjacent to Australia were cooler than would be expected during a La Nina event. These La Nina indicators make it very difficult to forecast the rainfall impacts of the MJO throughout northern Australia. While the MJO may be in an inactive phase and suppressing rainfall, this impact may be pretty much indecipherable due to La Nina driven convection and rainfall in the western Pacific/ northern Australia.

I expect the next passage of the MJO north of Australia (RMM Phase 4) in 18-23 days - mid December. Given the timing of this MJO event, and in conjunction with the La Nina, I would expect the Australian monsoon trough to develop in very short order after the arrival of the MJO.