The MJO signal is incoherent with cloud/ convective activity stretching from the mid- Indian Ocean to western Indonesia.

Models suggest that the MJO signal will probably remain incoherent for a few days.

I expect that the MJO will then cycle again, and reach Phase 4-5 (Maritime continent) mid March.

This may induce the last monsoonal burst for the 07-08 season, although there's always the chance a further passage of the MJO in April that could promote a final monsoonal incursion for Australia.

The probability of TC generation is enhanced by the passage of the MJO, so there's now an increased risk in the tropics to the NE of Australia for the next few days.