13th February

The MJO is now in Phase 5.

This passage of the MJO helped to re-invigorate the monsoon.

The MJO/monsoon should promote rainfall in northern Australia for the next week to 10 days, before the inactive phase of the MJO again suppresses convection. As previously noted, during a La Nina summer suppression may not be strongly evident.


The next passage of the MJO can be expected mid-March, probably the last opportunity for monsoon action, and wet season rains for northern Australia.

In addition to the MJO though: according to GCM's the La Nina may take a several months to break down, rather than breaking down over March - May, which may increase the chance of rainfall even through the ENSO autumn predictability barrier.